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With that rapid change comes great unpredictability. Psychologists cannot look into the future and know what a person's current life circumstances are going to be. Therefore, we cannot rely on dynamic risk factors to help us predict whether a person will act in a violent.

I must also say this: we are a lot better at it than we used to be. In 1983, the United States Supreme Court decided the landmark case of Barefoot v.

On its own, it is still not great at predicting a future violent act (for example, a person who has murdered someone in the past is actually not all that likely to murder someone again in the future).

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The risk levels are "low "medium and "high." Not too shocking. So what are these risk factors? Generally speaking, they fall into two different camps: static risk factors and dynamic risk factors.

By examining these factors, it gives clinicians a reasonable idea of the potential level of risk a person poses. By far, past violence is the best static predictor of future violence.

Jones' static risk factors, he is at moderate to high risk for engaging in a violent act sometime within the next seven years. 5. In order to assess for the risk of violence in the short-term (days to weeks a review of both static and.

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Clearly, we need to get better at predicting violence. The methods we currently use are much better than they used to be, but there is still a lot of room for error.

I am sure that, as research progresses, we will get better and better at assessing an individual's risk and protecting society from the its most dangerous citizens. Thanks for reading- Max Wachtel, Ph.

I am encouraged by the progress that has been made since 1983, and psychologists are continuing to work hard to refine our approach to risk assessment in order to improve it beyond the 65-70 accuracy threshold.

 

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